by BillyHoSports September 21, 2023
Subscribe to BillyHoSports
The Pennsylvania Derby began on Memorial Day in 1979 and achieved Graded status in 1981. Subsequently, from 1990 until 2009, with the exception of 2006 due to extensive renovations, the race was held on Labor Day. Notably, in 2004, it was elevated to a Grade II event. However, starting in 2010, the race moved to the last Saturday of September in an attempt to attract a stronger field preparing for the Breeders’ Cup. This strategic move to late September also allowed it to distance itself from another premier event, the Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course in New York State. Finally, in 2017, it was raised to Grade I status for the first time.
Parx is generally regarded as a “speed track” and therefore it is advantageous to be either up front-running or stalking close to the pace. Those horses who hit the front early are often able to get away from any potential closers. This is not a hard and fast rule, but handicappers have noted that wire-to-wire winners are commonplace at the track.
The Contenders
In case you tuned in to my preview show on YouTube, you’ll recall that I diligently profiled all 11 of these contenders. After a thorough analysis, I successfully narrowed the list to the top 6 contenders. This serves as the foundation for the approach we’re taking in today’s post. Our primary objective is to place a well-informed and value-driven wager on this race, ensuring that we optimize our return on investment (ROI). Let’s dive into the details and craft a winning strategy.
I eliminated Modern Era and Dreamlike from consideration due to their well-below-average speed ratings. Subsequently, I further narrowed down the field by excluding Daydreaming Boy and West Coast Cowboy. These eliminations were based on various factors, including their running style, speed attributes that didn’t meet my preferences, as well as the absence of the jockey and trainer experience I typically seek in Grade 1 races. Crupi, the 9 horse did spark some interest, but I ultimately eliminated him due to lack of success in graded stakes races. This son of Curlin has the potential for further improvement, and if he manages to make a significant leap in performance during this race, there’s a possibility that he could factor into the exotic bets.
The Remaining Six Contenders
I’m not fully dismissing IL Miracolo, but he would be my first out if I was required to eliminate another horse. The main reason he made the cut was he just won the (G3) Smarty Jones stakes at Parx. He had a nice front running performance, but was all over the track coming down the stretch. Also, he has been running vs the top 3 year old’s practically all season.
I have some interest in the 4 horse, Magic Tap. This late-blooming colt, under the expert guidance of trainer Steve Assmussen, has shown consistent improvement with each race. In his recent outing, a a fast paced performance, he achieved an impressive 98 Brisnet Speed Rating. While he’ll need to improve further, he appears capable of rising to the challenge. And, of course, it’s hard not to appreciate the strikingly beautiful gray coat of this horse!
The Sleeper
Breaking from the 8 post is the Brendan Walsh trained Gilmore. I had little interest when first researching this horse, but since I have altered my opinion. I do believe this horse will be under the radar this Saturday & should offer excellent value in both straight bets & exotics. First, in his last race they were trying him on turf, but the race was moved to the main track. Despite this, Gilmore delivered an impressively fast, up-close, and efficient performance. Secondly, it’s noteworthy that the same ownership group that possesses Gilmore also owns the morning line favorite, Reincarnate. They entrusted the Hall of Fame jockey, John Velazquez, with Reincarnate in the past, but they’ve chosen him to ride Gilmore in this contest. This decision underscores their confidence in Gilmore’s potential, as they believe he has a real fighting chance to shine here, and they’re providing him with every opportunity to succeed.
The Top Picks
I must start with Saudi Crown. This Brad Cox-trained son of Always Dreaming is undeniably the fastest horse in the race, as indicated by his consecutive 104 and 106 speed figures, which are above the competition. His remarkable early speed should enable jockey Florent Geroux to secure the lead from the start and potentially dictate the pace to his advantage.
Notably, his near miss while leading in the off conditions at Saratoga during the Jim Dandy was truly impressive. It’s worth mentioning that this performance was against the cream of the crop among three-year-old’s. Given the current race conditions, everything seems to align perfectly for him to potentially go wire to wire for a well-deserved victory.
Next up is Scotland. He made quite an impression with a wire-to-wire victory over fellow competitor IL Miracolo in the Curlin Stakes, earning a solid 100-speed rating. However, he experienced a regression on a muddy track during the Travers Stakes, where he did remain in the lead pack for much of the race before tiring in the stretch. Considering the shift to a speed-favoring track, I anticipate a potential bounce-back performance.
Finally, we come to Reincarnate. This Bob Baffert-trained contender, with Baffert’s impressive record of 4 wins in the Penn Derby, enters the race fresh off a victory in the Los Alamitos Derby. His front-running style secured him a commendable 98-speed rating in that race. I anticipate improvement in this outing, and it’s plausible that he’ll break the 100-speed mark this weekend.
However, a notable obstacle in Reincarnate’s path to victory is his starting position on the outside. In speed-favoring tracks, inside post positions often hold an advantage. While he ranks third in my considerations, with Saudi Crown and Scotland taking the top spots, it’s worth mentioning that John Velazquez is riding Gilmore instead of the favorite. Although Brian Hernandez is a capable jockey, the allure of having Johnny V in the saddle is undeniable.
The Bet
Be sure to catch my betting videos for all the big stakes races this Saturday at Parx Racing! In addition to the Penn Derby, there’s the G1 Cotillion, for the top 3 year old fillies. Also, the G2 Gallant Bob & Parx Dirt Mile are on my list of races to cover. My main focus on the upcoming video will be the Philly Big 5 wager.
I decided to go with the .50 Trifecta wager for this race. It will be a part-wheel.
