These Seven Horses all Won Early & Impressively
The optimal approach when handicapping juvenile races with the Kentucky Derby in mind is to pinpoint horses most likely to handle the classic distance in the Derby. Additionally, as you progress, focus on identifying horses showing signs of improvement, boasting solid speed figures, and demonstrating good form against classier competitors.
Pilot Commander, trained by Bob Baffert, took this young son of Justify to the Del Mar surface to claim his maiden win. Guided by jockey Juan Hernandez, he confidently took him right to the lead in the highly competitive 6-furlong sprint. As the race unfolded, he dueled into the stretch with two rivals, but ultimately pulled away for the victory.
New York boss, Rick Dutrow, trains El Capi, who won his first race like a boss himself. A son of McLean’s Music, he made short work of a field of eight going seven furlongs on the Aqueduct dirt. Taking off like a rocket from post one on the muddy sealed track, he never looked back. In fact, this race was over at the opening quarter pole.
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Brad Cox Has a Quality Road to Derby 150
Trainer Brad Cox has been among the best at developing 2-year-olds for several years and his 2023 crop is exceptional. His colt, Air of Defiance, sired by Quality Road, debuted on the sloppy sealed track at Saratoga. Air of Defiance got off slow, but remained engaged and closed the race to get second place to eventual BC Juvenile winner Fierceness.
Stretching out to 7-furlongs on the fast Keeneland track he broke much faster from post 11. He dueled 3-wide around the turn and was able to outpace his rivals to win by 6 lengths.
Knightsbridge is another young colt to impress in his first effort at Churchill Downs back on November 4th. Covering seven furlongs on a fast track, he wasn’t exactly easy to handle for jockey James Graham. However, by the time they make the turn for home, the son of Nyquist turned on the jets to win going away.
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Bill Mott Looking for Validation
Parchment Party is sired by Constitution and trained by Bill Mott. This promising colt is now 2 for 2 with both victories over the Churchill Downs surface. This closer came from way back to take down both his mile and a 16th races. Notably, Bill Mott has a Kentucky Derby win to his name, it came in the wake of the disqualification of Maximum Security in 2019.
Carbone is a Steve Asmussen-trained colt, and he broke out to win his maiden by 8 lengths on the Churchill Downs surface. Covering 6 furlongs, he broke right to the lead and was pressed throughout the race. However, once they entered the stretch drive, Carbone drew off for the win.
We finish with a couple of young colts sired by Justify, these two did battle on the Los Alamitos dirt on Futurity day. Scatify scored the maiden win in his first start for trainer John Sadler, defeating Bob Baffert’s March of Time in an epic stretch duel. Scatify went off at odds of 9-1, while March of Time was the 4-5 favorite in the 6 furlong race.
Even though Scatify came out on top, both these colts looked strong, clearing the third place horse by over 6 lengths.
