Hello, Welcome to Billy Ho Sports! Today we preview the Granddaddy of the Saratoga meet – The Travers Stakes! I have 7 contenders to profile today, but let’s start with some trends. First thing is to look for Grade 1 winning Sires. 11 of the past 14 winners were sired by a G1 winning horse, but last years winner Epicenter did not fit. Nine of the last 13 winners were coming off a win in their last race including 6 straight. Nine of the last 13 winners prepped in NY or close by for the race. My favorite trend is since 2010 there have been 8 winners at 6-1 or higher including 4 at double digit odds. Now, let’s look at the contenders.
Arcangelo
Arcangelo is trained by Jena Antonucci & ridden by Javier Castellano. Interestingly, Castellano opts for the Belmont winner over the KY Derby winner, adding intrigue. Arcangelo’s prowess is undeniable. My intrigue was piqued during the Peter Pan Stakes, where his stalking style led him to victory from an outer position. In a contrasting move, the Belmont Stakes saw him adopt the same stalking approach but from the inside, securing yet another win. Evidently, he’s hitting his stride at precisely the right moment.
Forte
Forte, under the guidance of Todd Pletcher and skillful riding by Irad Ortiz, enters the scene. Could he have emerged victorious in the KY Derby? Unfortunately, we’ll never know, as a hoof injury led to his withdrawal. Following his period of rest, he returned to the track, securing a 2nd place finish in the Belmont Stakes. However, a cloud of controversy looms around his performance in the Jim Dandy, where he surged forward, overtaking Angel Of Empire to challenge Saudi Crown at the wire. Opinions diverge on that crucial stretch and whether the jockey’s actions constituted a foul. What stands out is Forte’s exceptional ability to dominate the dirt down the stretch. My top choice.
Mage
Mage is trained by Gustavo Delgado, and with Luis Saez back in the saddle, there’s a strong sense of anticipation. Notably, Saez guided Mage to a remarkable runner-up finish in the Florida Derby. However, as the KY Derby winner, does Mage have a point to prove? Following his inability to catch National Treasure in the Preakness and his hard-fought battle with Geaux Rocket Ride in the Haskell, questions arise. Yet, both of those races showcased his tremendous effort, leaving no doubt that he’ll bring his A-game to this upcoming event.
Tapit Trice
Tapit Trice is trained by Todd Pletcher & has Jose Ortiz in the saddle. Is he good enough, or can he prove them wrong? The Bluegrass Stakes is where he was much closer to the pace instead of coming from the very back of the pack. Should Ortiz manage to engage him early and position him closer to the pace, his he has a shot. He’s a big horse with a big stride so if he can get that train a coming down the stretch, he will be closing ground in a hurry.
Disarm
Trained by Steve Assmussen, and with Joel Rosario returning in the saddle, Disarm enters the scene. Notably, he secured a commendable 4th place in the Jim Dandy on a sloppy track. This performance is consistent with his earlier triumph in the Matt Winn, also on an off track, where he overtook Verifying, who later clinched victory in his subsequent race. While Disarm might be perceived as a tier below the top contenders, he has been competitive in every race.
National Treasure
Trained by Bob Baffert & the rider is John Velazquez. My faith in him for the Preakness was well-founded, as he executed the race strategy exactly as I had hoped. He surged ahead to secure the lead and maintained a moderate pace to conserve energy for the stretch run. Despite a brief challenge from Blazing Sevens, he prevailed. It was a nice comeback after a setback on the Derby trail due to a sore foot, leading to his scratch in the San Felipe Stakes. Despite the disruption in training, he returned for the Santa Anita Derby, finishing 4th. While he appears slightly below the caliber of Forte and Arcangelo, he shares a competitive space with Mage and Tapit Trice.
Scotland
Guided by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, Scotland takes the spotlight. Despite being unraced at two and entering his fifth start, his trajectory has been impressive. His victory in the Curlin Stakes marked his third win out of four races in his fledgling career. This triumph came against the 3-5 favorite Blazin Sevens, with Scotland dominating down the stretch. Junior Alvarado’s skillful riding prevented any chance to catch this lightly raced 3 year old.
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